Certainty prevails! - That was the topic of the last blog just about 10 days back and I am happy that it does now. The extent of pessimism surrounding the political outcome of the elections, the deteriorating security scenario in the region, the plunging economic situation across the globe, gave jitters even to the most optimistic souls!
In fact the day before the results I had written these lines which obviously are not complete …
An election without a clear mandate is like…
· Foreplay without the act
· A preface without the plot
· A feast without hunger
· A marriage without love
· A responsibility reneged!
· A right unexercised!
· A promiscuity in politics legalized!
· Indicative Immaturity of the majority!
· Renewal of Political virginity every 5 years!
Good that I don’t have to complete this.
So is the optimism just limited to outcome of elections?…. Actually not:
· Clearly the outcome of elections where Indian electorate leaned to the 2 national parties instead of the so called “3rd Front” increasing the nuisance value of Indian polity and decided to stick to a “centrist” approach than a “rightist” is the key reason for optimism. These have several sub / smaller reasons:
o Indian polity is devoid (atleast hopefully) of the left and the likes of Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh etc…for the next few years.
o It’s a good lesson for BJP for their attitude to the several incidents in Bangalore, Mangalore and then the misadventures of Varun Gandhi. I hope that they would move a little more towards “center” than going more into temples and mandirs.
o The optimism that’s reflected in the stock market where the trading is halted for the day with a 20% surge means something significant. I understand that of the INR 3100 cr traded today only about 10% of it’s constitutes cash trade the balance on F&O. This means the restrained bulls, MF houses etc would probably ensure that the trading is halted on Tuesday too… which is 19/May…..
· The scenario in Pakistan where the army is after Taliban also is an encouraging sign. Unlike the past if there is any loyalty to this approach I think we would have a major threat off our back or least minimized.
· Bangladesh seems to be settled for now and we need to ensure that our diplomats build the right inroads into the country in a +ve way.
· Nepal seems to be an “ever problematic” situation below the threshold.
· But the most heartening news comes from Sri Lanka where the government seems to have eliminated LTTE and its leaders completely. This is a road to better stability and peace in this region. The killing of over 1100 Indian soldiers, assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, eliminating multiple Tamil leaders in SL, killing of innocent civilians over the last 2 decades, giving the world the art of suicide bombing in a cost effective way etc seems to be coming to an end for good.
· I just hope if Pakistan can be a Srilanka and do a “LTTE” on “Taliban”…. Then the people in the region can look forward some peace in this generation itself.
Without stopping with this let me also put the top 3 priorities for the Indian government:
· The top most agenda on my plate is reform in “Judiciary” and “Financial governance in government departments”. If this government is serious to deliver something to the people of India which is sustainable, basic and long lasting then we should focus on judicial reforms. Just like a TN Seshan delivered reforms in the Election commission which is historic and delivered a system that is dependable, we need the same in judicial reforms.
· The financial governance within government departments increasing the through put of the schemes and reforms is the most important factor. If 15% of the effective outlay reaches the end public, then a repair of 15% leakage effectively means 100% more reaching the end public. For years the coalition politics ensured that both the above are not taken up in a serious way. But there is an opportunity now.
· Threat from Naxals should be the top priority in terms of security. We should extend possible assistance to Pakistan to defeat Taliban and stabilize Afghanistan. But the resources should be spent on resolving naxal issues.
So, with almost a decisive mandate for Congress but importantly for progress and development, with some sanity & stability returning to the global financial markets, with significant success in the war in SL, with some resemblance of return of sanity in Pakistan’s political leadership, with a voice of a moderate US president not rising the tensions across the world and with Manmohan singh returning as PM – probably wanting to leave a long term legacy in Indian political system, we have a “Window of opportunity”…
If we can leverage this “Window of opportunity” then this may be a key milestone in the future history books about the Rise of India….
Happy reading!
Yours Optimistically!
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